How Trump Achieved a Major Step in the Middle East Yet Faces Challenges Regarding Vladimir Putin Concerning Ukraine
Reports of an impending American-Russian leadership meeting have been greatly exaggerated, it seems.
Only a few days after Donald Trump said he planned to confer with Russia's leader Putin in the Hungarian capital - "within two weeks or so" - the summit has been suspended indefinitely.
A initial meeting by the two nations' leading diplomats has been called off, too.
"I don't want to have a fruitless discussion," President Trump informed reporters at the executive mansion on Tuesday afternoon. "I don't want a waste of time, so I will observe what transpires."
- Trump says he wished to avoid a 'wasted meeting' after arrangement for Putin talks postponed
- Letdown in Kyiv as President Zelensky leaves Washington empty-handed
The on-again, off-again meeting is another twist in the president's attempts to broker an conclusion to hostilities in the Eastern European nation – a subject of increased attention for the American leader after he arranged a ceasefire and prisoner exchange agreement in Gaza.
While making remarks in the North African country recently to celebrate that ceasefire agreement, Trump addressed his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a fresh directive.
"We have to get Russia done," he said.
Nonetheless, the conditions that aligned to make a Gaza breakthrough achievable for the negotiation team may be difficult to replicate in a Ukraine war that has been ongoing for almost several years.
Less Leverage
Per Witkoff, the key to achieving a agreement was the Israeli government's decision to strike Hamas negotiators in the Gulf state. It was a action that angered US partners in the Arab world but gave the president leverage to compel Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu into making a deal.
Trump gained from a long record of siding with the Israeli state dating back to his first term, encompassing his decision to relocate the American embassy to Jerusalem, to alter America's position on the legality of Israeli settlements in the West Bank and, in recent times, his support for Israeli defense operations against Iran.
The US president, in fact, is more popular among the Israeli public than their prime minister – a situation that provided him with unique influence over the Israeli leader.
Combine Trump's political and economic ties to influential Arab nations in the region, and he had a wealth of negotiating strength to force an deal.
Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, by contrast, the president has much less leverage. Over the past nine months, he has vacillated between attempts to pressure the Russian president and then the Ukrainian leader, all with little seeming effect.
Trump has threatened to enact new sanctions on Russia's oil and gas sales and to provide the Ukrainian forces with advanced missile systems. But he has also recognised that such actions could harm the global economy and intensify the war.
Meanwhile, the president has publicly berated Zelensky, temporarily cutting off intelligence-sharing with Ukraine and suspending weapon deliveries to the country - only to then back off in the wake of concerned European allies who warn a defeat of Ukraine could disrupt the whole area.
The president loves to tout his skill to sit down and hammer out deals, but his face-to-face meetings with both Putin and Zelensky haven't seemed to move the hostilities any nearer a peaceful end.
Putin may actually be using the US leader's wish for a deal – and belief in in-person deal-making - as a means of manipulating him.
In July, Russia's leader agreed to a summit in the US state at the time when it seemed probable that the president would approve on congressional sanctions package supported by Senate Republicans. That bill was afterwards delayed.
Recently, as news emerged that the US administration was considering seriously sending long-range missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Kyiv, the Russian leader phoned Trump who then promoted the possible meeting in Budapest.
The next day, Trump welcomed Zelensky at the White House, but departed without agreements after a allegedly tense meeting.
The US leader maintained that he was not being played by the Russian president.
"As you are aware, I've been played throughout my career by the best of them, and I emerged successfully," he said.
But the president of Ukraine subsequently commented on the sequence of events.
"Once the matter of long-range mobility became a less accessible for us – for our nation – the Russian side almost automatically became less engaged in diplomacy," he stated.
So, in a matter of days, the president has shifted from entertaining the prospect of sending missiles to the Eastern European country to planning a meeting in Hungary with Russia's leader and privately urging Zelensky to surrender all of Donbas – including territory Russia has been unable to conquer.
He has finally settled on advocating a truce along current battle lines – a proposal Russia has refused to accept.
On the campaign trail last year, Trump vowed that he could end the conflict in Ukraine in a matter of hours. He has since discarded that commitment, admitting that ending the war is proving harder than he expected.
It has been a rare acknowledgement of the limits of his power – and the challenge of establishing a framework for peace when neither side wants, or is able to, cease hostilities.