🔗 Share this article

Just 48 hours remaining.

England's opening match in Australia gets under way on the morning of Friday.

Drawing on analysis from CricViz, we examine where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be decided.

It’s challenging to score runs, isn't it?

Batsmen on both teams of the Ashes rivalry might be questioning why they are bothering to turn up.

Much of the pre-series discussion has focused on the apparent challenge of scoring runs, especially for the opening match on a Perth pitch labeled a "green monster".

Regarding batting in Australia, particularly against pace bowling, no country has been more difficult in which to accumulate runs over the past five years.

There are two reasons for this: wickets and balls.

Taken as a collective, the pitches produced in Australia have been shown to be the fastest, highest bouncing and among the most inconsistent in the world.

Speed and variable bounce are the ideal combination for tough batting.

A long-standing narrative from English cricket describes the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a useless tool for a pace bowler.

An updated model of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, resulting in more seam movement.

Seam is a much bigger weapon than swing bowling in Australian conditions.

Since the new Kookaburra, fast bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about problem solving.

When the ball is on top, performances of batters can be the difference, and the reverse is true.

Should this series be dominated by the ball, a batsman could have the chance to be the key factor between the two teams.

What’s happening with the Australian pace attack?

On this occasion, England have arrived in Australia with their fast-bowling unit mostly fit, while the home side are the ones affected by fitness issues.

Captain Pat Cummins will miss at least the opening match with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unknown period because of a hamstring problem.

Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first paired as a trio for the 2017-18 Ashes.

From that point, they have combined to claim 81% of the dismissals taken by Australian fast bowlers in matches in Australia.

The Australian team have rarely had to look elsewhere because of the success and durability of the 'big three'.

On the occasions Australia have needed a back-up, Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 wickets in 14 matches at an average below 17.

Aside from Boland, other members of the backup squad have performed well.

Neser, Jhye Richardson and Pattinson all average below 30 in home Tests.

The last time Australia entered a home Test without both key bowlers, and were defeated, was in 2012.

The past two times they have competed in Australia without the duo, they have triumphed by a combined 694 runs, featuring a victory against England in the Adelaide Test previously.

On the rare occasions Australia have had to go past their star fast bowlers, results have remained strong – The tourists should take heed.

Challenging Openings

Remember when England struggled to identify an opening batsman to go alongside Alastair Cook?

Sir Chef went through partners faster than Watford change coaches.

No more.

Since Ben Duckett and Zak Crawley were united at the top of the England order at the end of 2022, no opening pair in the world has scored more runs together.

Their success as a partnership has been a reason in Crawley being backed through some inconsistent times.

The Kent man, who memorably hit the first ball of the last Ashes series for four, has also been recognized as having the game for Australia.

His batting average increases when the pace increases.

In comparison, the Australian opening lineup is in a constant state of flux, still seeking to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.

After Warner's retirement at the start of 2024, Usman Khawaja has walked out with five different partners in 15 Tests.

Uncapped Jake Weatherald looks set to become the sixth in 16 on the opening day, giving Australia an left-handed opening combo.

It is not just the openers that has posed issues for Australia.

Marnus Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was moved to open for the World Test Championship final, then left out completely.

Domestic form has brought him back, most likely back at three.

Across seven matches in 2025, the Australian top order have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and the West Indies have performed worse.

Spin war

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is a single department where Australia are clearly stronger – spin bowling.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, with 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spin bowlers to ever play.

England's Shoaib Bashir is a moderately successful gamble, looking short of form after a finger injury, while Jacks is primarily a batter.

It makes sense for the home team to want Lyon at the forefront, but spin bowling has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the past 10 years.

During that period, spinners have averaged nearly 44 in this country, albeit Lyon's record largely stands up compared to the difficulties of overseas spinners.

Another challenge for Lyon is actually bowling enough overs.

Recall the potency of fast bowling?

It is reducing Lyon's time with the ball.

During the 2017-18 series here, Lyon was bowling 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five Tests against the Indian team, it was half that number.

Test matches in Australia are 25% shorter since the new Kookaburra was introduced, meaning Lyon has fewer opportunities to make an impact.

Favorable Conditions?

The English team have a unfortunate tendency of being defeated in an overseas Ashes before Father Christmas has loaded his sleigh.

The series traditionally started in the Gabba, where they have failed to win since the year 1986.

Recently, that has been followed by a day-night Test in Adelaide Oval.

The visitors have one win in seven pink-ball Tests worldwide, while the hosts have won 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a city England have played at on 14 occasions since 1970 and won only one time, against a weakened Australia in 1978.

This time, the initial three venues on the tour are the identical, only in a different order and under altered conditions.

The Perth Test hosts an Ashes opener for the first occasion, not at the fabled Waca – scene of many an England humbling – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It remains a tough assignment, though one the visitors approach with no historical baggage.

Brisbane is the location for the second Test, the day-night fixture.

The last time Australia competed in a day-night Test at the Brisbane, they were surprised by the West Indies.

Likewise, the Australians are now unaccustomed to playing day matches at the usual day-night venue Adelaide Oval.

In the two red-ball matches played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia lost one, to India, in 2018.

The revised fixture list gives England a fresh attempt at beginning an overseas series positively, albeit with pitfalls.

Australia have won four of the five Tests played at Perth Stadium, though the single loss came in the most recent match – against India last year.

Every Test at the new ground has been won by the team batting first.

The English often complicate day-night matches, when data suggest the pink ball does not behave very differently from its red counterpart.

The issue in {day-night matches|