‘The Situation is Dire’: Conflict on Iran Squeezes India's Cooking-Gas Supplies.

The repercussions of a war being fought nearly 3,000km away are now reaching India's homes.

As US-Israeli strikes on Iran hinder energy transports through the key maritime chokepoint, stocks of kitchen fuel are tightening across India, pushing restaurants to cut menus, shorten hours and in some cases shut down altogether.

Social media is filled with video clips showing lines outside LPG distributors across Indian urban and rural areas as worries over fuel supplies escalate. Businesses appear the most affected: the most severe shortage is in restaurant kitchens.

"The situation is dire. Kitchen fuel simply is unavailable," says a representative of the National Restaurant Association of India.

Most restaurants run either on business-grade gas tanks or pipeline-supplied fuel, and the lack of supply are now being felt across the country. "Many restaurants have ceased operations - some in the capital, many in the southern region. People are switching to solid fuels and electric cookers to keep their operations going."

Localized Effects

In Mumbai, local news say up to a fifth of hospitality businesses are already fully or partly shut as cylinder availability dry up. In the southern cities of Bengaluru and Chennai, some restaurants say their gas stocks have shrunk with little backup. "Coffee is the sole item we can prepare and no food items - it is nothing less than pathetic. Operations will be impacted," says a business operator in Bengaluru.

Restaurant managers are rushing to adjust. "Menus are being curtailed, some are cutting lunch service and reducing hours," an industry representative says, adding that stoppages are fluctuating as supplies ebb and flow. "A number of eateries in Delhi were shut yesterday - some have resumed operations. It's a dynamic scenario."

Retailers note a spike in sales of induction stoves, with some saying they are facing stockouts.

Authority's View

Yet, the authorities states there is adequate supply.

India has more than 30 crore home fuel subscribers and authorities say supplies are being prioritized to households as tensions from the war in the Gulf affect energy markets.

Approximately 60% of India's LPG is sourced from abroad, and about nine out of ten of those shipments pass through the critical waterway, the strategic bottleneck now largely blocked by the hostilities.

The petroleum ministry says that it directed refineries to increase LPG output for domestic use, enhancing domestic production by about 25%. Non-domestic supply is being prioritised for critical services such as hospitals and educational institutions, while distribution will be "fair and transparent".

"Unnecessary hoarding and stockpiling has been caused by misinformation. The regular refill period for home fuel remains about 60 hours," says a senior official.

Spreading Anxiety

Now the anxiety is moving beyond kitchens. On social media, a widely shared video from Chennai shows a long, snaking queue of scooters outside a petrol pump. "Anxiety is palpable," the description reads.

According to analysis from industry analysts, concerns about India's broader energy security may be premature.

India imports almost all of its petroleum. Around half of its oil purchases - about 2.5 to 2.7 million barrels a day - travel through the strait, largely from regional suppliers.

Even if oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz are blocked, the shortfall could be partly compensated for by higher imports of Russian petroleum, according to a refinery and oil markets analyst.

Based on maritime intelligence and industry information, incremental Russian crude imports could reach around a significant volume of barrels a day, lessening India's effective shortfall from exposure to the Strait of Hormuz to about 1.6 million barrels a day.

"A large quantity of Russian oil barrels are currently in transit at sea in the Indian Ocean and, with only India and China as major buyers, those barrels remain a available backup," an analyst noted.

Cooking Gas: The Critical Weakness

The key weakness is LPG, commentators observe.

India consumes roughly one million barrels a day, but produces only a minority share domestically, importing the rest - 80–90% through the Strait.

Refineries can adjust processes to squeeze out a bit more LPG, but even a 10-20% boost would only lift domestic supply to about around half of demand, leaving the country significantly leaning on imports.

In short: "Petroleum shortage concerns can be somewhat alleviated through diversification. Refined product supply remains relatively comfortable. LPG availability is the real variable to monitor in the coming weeks."

What may be intensifying the concern on the ground is not just tight supply but erratic supply chains - and the usual problem of panic buying.

An industry representative claims opportunistic profiteering.

"Retailers are misusing the situation - illegally trading canisters and selling them at a high cost. In one small town, I heard of cylinders being hoarded and auctioned off."

For now, India's petroleum stocks may be buffered by international market dynamics. But in homes across the country, the more pressing concern is simple: how to get the next gas canister.