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Voting has commenced for general elections in the Netherlands, with recent surveys indicating that the anti-immigration firebrand Geert Wilders and his PVV party could once again win the most seats, although experts suggest PVV is unlikely of joining the future coalition.

Polling Trends and Election Dynamics

The PVV, which in the last election achieved a shock first-place finish and established a four-party all-conservative government that collapsed within a year, is currently marginally ahead in the polls and is projected to win between 24 and 28 seats in the 150-member house of representatives.

Nevertheless, PVV's popularity has dipped since the previous election, when it won 37 parliamentary seats. All major parties have stated they will not entering into a coalition with the PVV leader, who triggered the fall of the previous government in June amid disagreements concerning his controversial anti-refugee plans.

Major Parties and Projections

Following a campaign dominated by topics such as immigration, medical expenses, and the country's severe housing shortage, the left-leaning GL/PvdA coalition, led by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is running a near second, expected to gain between 22 to 26 parliamentary seats.

Also performing well is the liberal-progressive Democrats 66, predicted to increase its seat count by almost five times to 21 to 25 seats, while the right-leaning CDA is anticipated to more than double its seat tally to between 18 and 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – which included the Freedom Party, liberal-conservative VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and NSC – are all projected to lose seats, with several facing heavy declines.

Electoral System and Fragmentation

In the proportional Dutch system, gaining just less than one percent of the national vote yields a party a seat in parliament. Among the 27 parties participating in the vote – including senior-focused parties, for youth, animal rights parties, for a universal basic income, and for sport – up to 16 may gain entry to the legislature.

This high degree of fragmentation ensures that no single party is expected to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been governed by coalitions – typically composed of four parties in recent governments – for over 100 years.

Post-Election Scenarios

The PVV leader claimed that "democracy will be dead" in the Netherlands if the PVV ends up as the biggest group yet is excluded from power. But, opponents and experts say that first place does not assure government participation and that any governing alliance with a parliamentary majority is a democratic outcome.

Although the election result is uncertain and coalition talks may require several months, analysts suggest that following the most extreme government in its recent history, the future government is likely to be a broad-based coalition led by either the moderate left or centrist right.

Election Day Details

Polling stations, such as those in the Madurodam model village in The Hague and the Anne Frank museum in the capital city, began operations at 7.30am (6:30 GMT) and will conclude at 9:00 PM. A usually accurate post-voting survey is anticipated soon after closing time.

After the vote, an official negotiator will explore possible coalitions that could command a majority in the legislature. Potential partners will then draft a governing pact for the next four years and must face a vote of confidence in the house before assuming power.